#1 March 11, 2011 REVERSAL OF PRICE ACTION AFTER NEWS

Japanese yen daily

Major earthquake hit at night. Initially yen went lower (red oval), but only a little bit. I was short and remember seeing this on TV at night and thinking I should get up and cover position. I didn’t. Market skyrocketed. There was repatriation explanation for strength after initial response reversed, but reversal of initial response is the key.

LESSON: Failure to respond after major news item and reversal of initial response is important signal.