#17 MARCH 22, 2012 COUNTER-TO-EXPECTED PRICE ACTION AS SIGNAL

The VXX was trading down more than 1%, not far from previous long-term lows, even though S&P was down early in day and nearly 2% lower than it had been at the VXX low a couple of days earlier. I had expected to see the VXX up a few percent and was shocked to see it was down. I was two-thirds positioned on a measured move based buy. The extremely poor action was a strong warning signal. I should have gotten out. I didn’t do anything and the market fell more than 5% more during rest of day.

Mistake—I ignored that market I was long was down significantly when it should have been up significantly. When this happens need to get out immediately. Really bad mistake since I noticed it to the point of being baffled by the price action.